Underwear Index May Suggest Economic Recovery

For one answer to the nation’s most pressing economic question — when will the recession end? — just take a peek inside the American man’s underwear drawer.

There may be some new pairs there, judging by recent reports from retailers and analysts, and that could mean better days ahead for everyone.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/30/AR2009083002761.html

MB: Shocking.  Why the theory works: Underwear is considered to be a universal necessity resulting in typically stable sales.  The degree to which a demand or supply curve reacts to a change in price is the curve’s elasticity.  Elasticity varies among products because some products may be more essential to the consumer.  Therefore products that are deemed necessities like underwear are more insensitive to price changes.  However during times of economic and financial strain men will stretch the time between buying new pairs, causing underwear sales to dip.  When underwear sales increase it may be a sign to economic recovery. 

The sales of underwear dropped significantly in 2008, and though some predict the sales to drop again in 2009, the rate in which sales decrease is likely to be reduced.  Like many economic indicators a slowing of decline is welcomed as a step in the right direction.

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Online Job Demand Up 169,000 in August

MB:According to Conference Board Reports done by HWOL “employer job demand picked up in August, rising 169,000 or 5%.  Advertised vacancies in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations increased in August, and this group experienced the lowest supply/demand rate. 

“The August increase is good news showing what we hope will be a continued improvement in job demand this fall,” said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. August job demand data are in-line with The Conference Board’s recently released Consumer Confidence Index which also rose in August, largely reflecting consumers’ feelings that jobs were becoming easier to find.

Shocking: The August data also suggests that, “While all of this is good news, the gap between the number of unemployed and the number of advertised vacancies still remains at about 11 million, with over 4 unemployed for every online advertised job vacancy,” said Levanon.

http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/HWOnlineAug09_PR.pdf

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Sugar Prices at 28 Year High

MB: Shocking!  World sugar prices are at a 28 year high climbing over .40/lbs well above its .21/lb average.  Continued rise in sugar prices are expected through the early parts of 2010, analyst suggest this is caused by a world supply shortage of the commodity.  India and Brazil, the two major sugar producers have had weak harvests this year due to bad wheather.

WORLD SUGAR PRICE

sugarprices

 http://www.indexmundi.com/

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Burgernomics – The Big Mac Index

Shocking!!

The Economist’s Big Mac index seeks to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. It is arguably the world’s most accurate financial indicator to be based on a fast-food item. (Here is a brief explanation and video clip.)

Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, the notion that a dollar should buy the same amount in all countries. Thus in the long run, the exchange rate between two countries should move towards the rate that equalises the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country. Our “basket” is a McDonald’s Big Mac, which is produced in about 120 countries. The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would mean hamburgers cost the same in America as abroad. Comparing actual exchange rates with PPPs indicates whether a currency is under- or overvalued.

THE size of your pay packet may be important, but so is its purchasing power. Helpfully, a UBS report published this week offers a handy guide to how long it takes a worker on the average net wage to earn the price of a Big Mac in 73 cities. Fast-food junkies are best off in Chicago, Toronto and Tokyo, where it takes a mere 12 minutes at work to afford a Big Mac. By contrast, employees must toil for over two hours to earn enough for a burger fix in Mexico City, Jakarta and Nairobi.

Mac

MB: The Big Mac Index in theory may work, but can anyone share some possible disadvantages of using the Big Mac Index? In addition what are some of the advantages, why would someone come up with the idea to use a fast food item as a financial indicator?  Thoughts appreciated, thank you.

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Mac OS X Snow Leopard

Apple has spent the last decade building and improving Mac OS X, fusing the classic Mac OS and technology acquired from Steve Jobs’s Next into an impressive mainstream operating system that’s widely considered the best in its class. But after a decade of constant advancement and regular operating-system upgrades, Apple has taken a pause with the release of Snow Leopard, also known as Mac OS X 10.6. Instead of adding hundreds of new features, Apple has chosen to use Snow Leopard to cut ties with the past, plan for the future, and take dead aim on its present competition.

The result is a Mac OS X update unlike any in recent memory, one that boosts speeds, reclaims disk space, tweaks dozens of features, and lays the groundwork for a new generation of computers that feature 64-bit multi-core microprocessors, ultra powerful graphics processors, and massive amounts of memory. These features, combined with the low upgrade price of $29, make Snow Leopard the biggest no-brainer of an upgrade since Mac OS X 10.1. (And that upgrade, the aged among us will recall, was completely free.)

Unlike previous editions of Mac OS X, which could be freely installed on any old Mac, Snow Leopard’s license specifically limits it to users who are already using Leopard, which has been shipping since October 2007. If you are a Leopard user, you can upgrade a single Mac for $29, or up to five Macs in one household with the Snow Leopard Family Pack for $49. Users of Tiger–essentially people who bought Intel Macs before Leopard was released, and never upgraded–are supposed to purchase the Mac Box Set, which includes Snow Leopard, iLife ‘09, and iWork ‘09, for $169. (Snow Leopard doesn’t run at all on PowerPC-based Macs.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/26/AR2009082603925.html

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National Youth Unemployment Rate Rises in July

julyunemploymentmap.jpg

 

MB: A report released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the national unemployment rate for July was 9.7%.  Unemployment amongst youth ages 16-24 years old increased by 1.6 million to 19.3 million.  Shocking! Though youth unemployment rates tend to by higher during the summer months by an increased fluctuation in youth labor (supply); this year the pro-portion of young people which were employed in July was 51.4%, the lowest July rate on record (which began in 1948).  Is the poor economic environment to blame for the increase in youth unemployment?  Adults looking for work could be stealing much of the summer work that is available, resulting in large youth unemployment rates.

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US Ranks 28th in Internet Connection Speed

The United States ranks 28th in the world in average Internet connection speed and is not making significant progress in building a faster network, according to a report released on Tuesday.

The report by the Communications Workers of America (CWA) said the average download speed in South Korea is 20.4 megabits per second (mbps) — four times faster than the US average of 5.1 mbps.

Japan trails South Korea with an average of 15.8 mbps followed by Sweden at 12.8 mbps and the Netherlands at 11.0 mbps, the report said.

New research indicates that between 2007 and 2009, the average download Internet speed in the United States has increased by only 1.6 megabits per second (mbps), from 3.5 mbps in 2007 to 5.1 mbps in 2009.  At this rate, it will take the United States 15 years to catch up with current Internet speeds in South Korea, the country with the fastest average Internet connections.

The Speed Matters Speed Test, a project of the Communications Workers of America (CWA), measures the speed of a user’s Internet connection. The 2009 report is based on aggregated data from more than 413,000 Internet users who took the online test between May 2008 and May 2009. The Speed Test, a full list of 2009 state rankings and a comparison to 2007 and 2008 averages are available at www.speedmatters.org.

http://www.cwa-union.org/

MB:  Shocking! In one of my previous posts “Recession Sparks Innovation” I had mentioned how times of recession may limit barriers to entry in certain industry’s.  There are only a hand full of nationwide company’s that provided high-speed internet connectivity; this lack of competition may be a contributing factor to slow technological advances in the industry.  With the market cornered there is little motivation to enhance services.

Another reason for the US’s lack of innovation in this industry may be caused by the way US citizens are using the Internet.  Hi-tech smart phones are the new trend, emailing, blogging, and twittering from your phone is no longer only for the tech geeks; parents, kids, and athletes are now using smart phones as their primary source to connect to the Internet.  Though convenient using your phone for Internet is not nearly as fast.

wireless-internet-card-4

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“Stimulus Spending Is Like Crack”

CRACK%2520PARAPHERNALIA

MB: Today on CNBC’s Power Lunch guest host Greg Knapp referred to stimulus spending as “economic crack”.  Crack has symptoms of giving you a great quick satisfying high, but leads to negative long term health issues.  Knapp mentioned that stimulus spending has the same effects on the economy, it will  lead to large, fast economic growth but will ultimately create long term issues (debt and inflation to name a few).

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Legal Drinking Age – US In The 21 Club

NEARLY 5,000 people below the age of 21 die because of excessive alcohol consumption each year. Oddly, this has triggered a new movement to lower the drinking age. In America, young people can vote, drive, marry, divorce, hunt and go to war before alcohol is legally allowed to touch their lips. Many states once set their minimum drinking-age at 18. But in 1984 Ronald Reagan oversaw the passage of the “21 law”, which requires states to set 21 as the minimum drinking-age or risk losing 10% of their highway funds. Now campaigners want to move it back.

In the past, states have been too fiscally timid to challenge the 21 law. But calls for change are growing louder. Two local magistrates in South Carolina recently ruled that banning 18- to 20-year-olds from drinking or possessing alcohol is unconstitutional. Public officials, including the former attorney general of South Dakota, have called the 21 law a failure. The about-face of Morris Chafetz, a doctor who served on the commission that recommended increasing the drinking-age to 21, has also raised eyebrows. This week he called it the most regrettable decision of his career.

http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14258833&source=hptextfeature

MB: My early college years were at times a bit of a blur.  Like many Freshman the first breath of freedom can be overwhelmingly exciting, drinking with my new friends resulted in some of the best times of my life.  Half of the fun from drinking was breaking the law, and doing stupid things, I am not sure drinking would have been as fun if it were legal.  When I turned 21 and became legally able to consume alcohol the thrill was no longer the same.

One suggested solution to the problem of alcohol related deaths in the States is to grant 18 year old high school grads who have a clean record complete an alcohol-education program.  Once completed the new adults would be able to apply for a drinking license. 

 photo_1235095254

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ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN WIDESPREAD AMONG STATES IN 2008

New statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that economic growth slowed in most states and regions of the U.S. in 2008 as economic growth overall slowed. Real GDP growth slowed in 38 states, with downturns in construction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance restraining growth in many states.  Growth in real U.S. GDP by state slowed from 2.0 percent in 2007 to 0.7 percent in 2008.

GDP (2)

MB: To no surprise real GDP (economic growth) slowed in all eight BEA regions.  What was however a bit shocking were the states that grew faster than the nation and were in the highest quintile, “these states included WA, WY, CO, NM, ND, SD, IA, KS, OK, WV and DC (notice the low populations of these states).  A contributing factor to the growth in GDP for these states was increases in agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining. 

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm

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