Fed chief Bernanke wins 2nd term in closest vote

The Associated Press

By Jeanine A. and Jim K.

WASHINGTON – Embattled Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke won confirmation for a second term Thursday, but only by the closest vote ever for the crucial post and after withering criticism from lawmakers for bailing out Wall Street while other Americans suffered in recession.

The Senate confirmed Bernanke for a new four-year term by a 70-30 vote, a seemingly solid majority but 14 votes worse than the closest previous vote for a Fed chairman.

President Barack Obama hailed the Senate’s action and praised Bernanke’s "wisdom and steady leadership."

The battle over Bernanke’s confirmation has been a test of central bank independence, a crucial element if the Fed is to carry out unpopular but economically essential policies. Its decisions on interest rates can have immense consequences, from the success or failure of the largest companies to the typical home-buyer’s ability to get an affordable loan to the price of cereal at the grocery or gas at the corner station.

Created by Congress in 1913 after a series of bank panics, the Federal Reserve is an independent agency, supposedly outside politics, but its chairman is typically assailed by lawmakers and others when the economy falls and jobless ranks lengthen.

"Bernanke fiddled while our markets burned," huffed Richard Shelby, of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, during Thursday’s debate. "Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve played a key role in setting the stage for the financial crisis."

Shelby and other opponents blame Bernanke for failing to spot problems leading up to the crisis, for lax bank regulation and for not cracking down on dubious home mortgage practices. All those missteps contributed to the recession, they contend.

Supporters see it far differently, crediting him with preventing the Great Recession from turning into the second Great Depression.

"The chairmanship of Ben Bernanke has in no small measure made it possible for this nation to avoid a catastrophe," said Senate Banking Committee Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.

Supporter Chuck Schumer, D-N-Y., worried that the bitter fight over the nomination would send "the message that the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy decisions are under the thumb of Congress. Businesses will be faced with the prospect that the Fed might not be able to do what’s necessary for the economy because of pressure from Congress."

The vote on his confirmation came at nearly the last possible moment — Bernanke’s current term expires Sunday.

The confirmation vote was preceded by a critical preliminary ballot to block a filibuster by opponents. He needed 60 votes rather than a simple majority and got 77, to 23 against. The closest previous final confirmation vote for a Fed chairman was 84-16 for Paul Volcker’s second term in 1983 following another severe recession.

In the final vote, 11 Democrats and an independent joined 18 Republicans against Bernanke. They included senators facing potentially difficult re-elections this year, such as Democrats Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Barbara Boxer of California. Seven Democrats stuck with their party’s majority on the vote to overcome the filibuster, but then switched to vote against confirmation. Both party leaders — Democrat Harry Reid of Nevada and Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky — voted to confirm. John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, voted against him.

After Thursday’s vote, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said, "The Senate did the right thing. Chairman Bernanke will continue to play a vitally important role in guiding the nation’s economy."

First appointed by President George W. Bush and then re-nominated by President Barack Obama, Bernanke found himself without a broad partisan constituency in the Senate.

"Although the Fed can print money, it can’t print political capital," said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, a consulting firm that advises financial institutions.

Bernanke’s role in bailing out Wall Street has angered many Americans, who are still struggling under double-digit unemployment, stagnant paychecks, cracked nest eggs and record home foreclosures. In an election year in which the economy’s health is still precarious, senators were hearing those complaints loud and clear.

"A vote for Ben Bernanke is a vote for bailouts," said Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., a longtime critic.

Bernanke has especially upset lawmakers with his support of a $182 billion rescue of insurance giant American International Group Inc. Hefty bonuses to AIG executives and billions in payments to AIG’s Wall Street partners added to the outrage. Criticism mounted as unemployment rocketed to 10 percent.

Bernanke advocates argue that the Fed chairman is being blamed for the failure of institutions over which the Fed had no authority. What’s more, they say the countermeasures he took to intervene were exactly what Congress created the agency to do.

"Much of the anger directed at the Fed and the uncertainty regarding Bernanke’s reconfirmation is terribly unfortunate — both because of the impact it might have on the central bank going forward, and also because much of the scorn is undeserved," said John Dearie, a former officer of the New York Fed now serving as executive vice president of the Financial Services Forum, an industry group.

The Federal Reserve acts as the "lender of last resort" to banks when they can’t get money elsewhere. That’s important for the nation’s financial and economic stability.

Bernanke’s confirmation comes as Congress is writing an overhaul of financial regulations aimed at avoiding another financial crisis. The chairman has had to defend the Fed against efforts to diminish its authority.

A House bill would remove its power to oversee consumer protections and would subject it to a sweeping congressional audit. A Senate bill seeks to create a separate consumer entity as well, and would create a single banking regulator that would also strip the Fed of its supervision of bank holding companies.

Bernanke has admitted making mistakes — including underestimating the threat of a booming housing market that eventually went bust and the resulting fallout to the economy. But he insist he has the tools, the know-how and the political backbone to safely steer the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. The biggest challenge facing Bernanke this year: deciding when and how to reverse course and boost interest rates to sop up the unprecedented money pumped out during the crisis. That’s important to prevent an outbreak of inflation.

A scholar of the Great Depression, Bernanke, 56, spent most of his professional career in academia, including 17 years teaching economics at Princeton University. He came to Washington to take a job at the Federal Reserve, working with then-Chairman Alan Greenspan. Bush selected him to be his top economist. After that, he was sent to run the Fed starting in 2006.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100129/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke_senate

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Apple Tablet Surprises

Business Week

If its engineers hew to recent history, Apple’s tablet computer may look nothing like what the prognosticators foresee.

The speculative madness surrounding Apple’s rumored tablet computer has finally reached its frothy peak.

Tech’s chattering classes are obsessed with the unconfirmed product, which Apple (AAPL) may announce at an event in January, or February, or March, depending on which set of reports you adhere to. Apple, not surprisingly, is mum.

The hunger for information—and misguided speculation—reminds me of the mistaken prognosticating about the iPhone before its introduction three years ago. It may be time to step back and realize that Apple may uncork a product so surprising that the company again leaves the tech industry scrambling to catch up to its products’ smooth operation and sleek design.

Documented facts about the tablet are few. This much we do know: In November 2008, Apple took control of the trademark name TabletMac from a company called Axiotron, which converts MacBook laptops into tablet computers running Apple’s Mac OS X.

For full story click link below:

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/108492/check-expectations-for-apples-tablet-at-the-door

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Is School Worth It?

Time Magazine

Employers and career experts see a growing problem in American society – an abundance of college graduates, many burdened with tuition-loan debt, heading into the work world with a degree that doesn’t mean much anymore.

The problem isn’t just a soft job market – it’s an oversupply of graduates. In 1973, a bachelor’s degree was more of a rarity, since just 47% of high school graduates went on to college. By October 2008, that number had risen to nearly 70%. For many Americans today, a trip through college is considered as much of a birthright as a driver’s license. (See pictures of the college dorm’s evolution.)

Marty Nemko, a career and education expert who has taught at U.C. Berkeley’s Graduate School of Education, contends that the overflow in degree holders is the result of many weaker students attending colleges when other options may have served them better. "There is tremendous pressure to push kids through," he says, adding that as a result, too many students who aren’t skilled become degree holders, promoting a perception among employers that higher education doesn’t work. "That piece of paper no longer means very much, and employers know that," says Nemko. "Everybody’s got it, so it’s watered down."

What’s not watered down is the tab. The cost of average tuition rose 6.5% this fall, and a report released on Dec. 1 by the Project on Student Debt showed that the IOU is getting bigger. Two-thirds of all students now leave college with outstanding loans; the average amount of debt rose to $23,200 in 2008. In the last academic year, the total amount loaned to students increased about 18% from the previous year, to $81 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for recent grads rose as well. It is now 10.6%, a record high.

Full Story Click Here.

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Mexican’s Worried About 2010

Time Magazine

Forget 2012. As far as many Mexicans are concerned, the ancient Mayas were being generous: the sky’s actually going to fall next year. Why? Because it’s 2010, Mexico’s bicentennial, and Mexican history has an eerie way of repeating itself. Mexico’s 1910 centennial, after all, saw the start of the bloody, decade-long Mexican Revolution, which killed more than a million people. And that cataclysm was precisely a century after the start of Mexico’s bloody, decade-long War of Independence in 1810.

You get the picture. As a result, there’s been no shortage of talk lately about possible unrest, especially in the form of armed rebel groups, erupting south of the border in 2010. But is there really a basis for concern? None as apparent as the popular grievances that existed in 1809 or 1909. But this is still Mexico; and while Spanish colonizers no longer oppress the country, and dictators like Porfirio Diaz aren’t brutalizing campesinos, the country nonetheless is reeling from the worst criminal violence in its history and one of its hardest economic slumps. "We are very near a social crisis," JosÉ Narro, the director of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City, said recently. "The conditions are there." (Will the world end in 2012? What the Mayan prophecy is and how the movies see it.)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20091231/wl_time/08599195005100

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Failure to Succeed – Blame the Brain

Freakonomics: Before you commit to those New Year’s resolutions, you might want to read Jonah Lehrer’s recent article on the limitations of willpower. “Most of us assume that self-control is largely a character issue,” he writes, “and that we would follow through on our New Year’s resolutions if only we had a bit more discipline. But this research suggests that willpower itself is inherently limited, and that our January promises fail in large part because the brain wasn’t built for success.” Instead of trying to lose weight, quit smoking, and pay off your credit cards all at once, Lehrer suggests spreading those resolutions out so as not to overtax the brain.

Source: Blame it on The Brain, How Not to Keep a Resolution

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Posting will begin again tomorrow

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Nationalization: The process of a national government taking over the ownership of a private business or industry, usually in conjunction with a major revolution that establishes a communistic or socialist command economy. Nationalization was a common practice, sort of a fad, during the 1950s,1960s, and 1970s. Even non-revolutionary industrialized countries in Europe jumped onto the nationalization bandwagon. The United States also took at stab at nationalizing passenger train service when Amtrak was established in 1970.

Natural Selection: The notion that firms best suited to the economic environment on the ones that tend to survive. The natural selection of business firms is an adaptation of the biological process of natural selection, in which biological entities best suited to the natural environment are the ones that survive. The notion of natural section suggests that even if firms do NOT actively, consciously pursue the profit-maximization goal, assuming they do is not necessarily unreasonable. Those firms that approximate the goal of profit-maximization, whether intentionally or accidently, are the ones most likely to survive and remain in business.

New Classic Economy: A body of economic thought emerging in the last quarter of the 20th century based on greater reliance on voluntary market exchanges, a laissez faire approach to government policies, and recognition of the supply-side of the economy. New classical economics, as the name implies, is a rejuvenation of classical economics that dominated economic thought from the 1770s to the 1930s and was developed to counter Keynesian economics that was prevalent from the 1930s to the 1970s.

Nondurable Good: A good bought by consumers that tends to last for less than a year. Common examples are food and clothing. The notable thing about nondurable goods is that consumers tend to continue buying them regardless of the ups and downs of the business cycle.

Norris-Laguardia Act: A Congressional act passed in 1932 that outlawed the use of yellow-dog contracts by employers and made it more difficult for firms to use legal injunctions against labor unions. This act strengthened labor related provisions of the Clayton Act and foreshadowed the more favorable attitude toward labor unions under the ensuing Roosevelt administration.

All definitions are provided by AmosWeb

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MB: As the year ends an onslaught of economic indicators are being released to the public; many in which have shown promising data.  For example a report released today showed a 7% increase on existing home sales.  Additionally BEA reported a 2.8% increase in GDP for the third quarter.  This is good news for the economy and has stimulated a new trend in economic debates.  Rather than discussing whether or not our economy is recovering, we are now questioning if the recovery is sustainable.  Within this discussion the main controversy is the continuation of government stimulus spending. 

Joseph Stiglitz a noble prize winner in 2001 states: While this week’s figures on gross domestic product are “very good,” the numbers would be “miserable” without stimulus measures enacted by the Obama administration.” He urged the U.S. and other countries not to pull back on efforts to shore up economies.

“When we look at if workers can get jobs, if they can work full time, if businesses are able to sell goods they produce, in those terms, we are nowhere near the end of recession” in the U.S., said Stiglitz, 66, the former chief economist at the World Bank. The U.S. job market is still “in very bad shape.”

Below is a blog post from Blogging Stocks, which explains how former FED chairman Alan Greenspan feels about stimulus spending. 

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said 2009’s bull market in stocks is reducing the need for additional stimulus actions, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Aided by U..S. stock market gains, U.S. household net worth increased by $2.7 trillion in Q3 to $53.4 trillion, according to data compiled by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

When portfolio values rise due to stock, bond, or other asset gains, it increases wealth and its impact on economic activity, called the ‘wealth effect.’

"The stimulus is only a third spent, and its order of magnitude is not large enough to compare with the strength and power of the remarkable global equity increase that’s occurred since early March," Greenspan told Bloomberg News Wednesday. "Capital gains have proved a far greater stimulus than one can attribute to the $787 billion program that has been only partially spent." Greenspan added that increasing spending beyond fiscal/monetary funds committed to-date may not be not needed because higher stock prices and earnings increases will make loans easier to access.

Economic Analysis: Another positive development for the U.S. economy. The subject of wealth and its relationship to income is a topic that’s been worthy of many books, dissertations, and treatises, but briefly, here: perhaps the most important impact of the increased wealth is the enhanced capital position of banks, and the resulting improvement to their balance sheets. Hopefully, it will prompt more lending to small/medium sized businesses who need the capital to expand operations.

The wealth effect is also positively correlated with consumer spending: provided those who increase their spending are in a sound financial position to do so, the impact of the likely boost in consumption will represent another tailwind for the U.S. economy.

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A Great Day For Economic Indicators

Corporate Profits
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#corporate

County Compensation by Industry*
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/comp/comp_newsrelease.htm

Existing Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata
Note:  Release time is at 10 a.m.

Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States (Z1)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
Note:  Release time is at 4:30 p.m.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Mass Layoffs (Monthly)
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/mmls.toc.htm
Note:  Release time is at 10 a.m.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

http://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_
business_conditions/manufacturing/index.cfm

Note:  Release time is at 10 a.m.

Richmond Fed Survey of Services and Retail Activity

http://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_
of_business_conditions/service_sector/

Note:  Release time is at 10 a.m.

Commercial Paper
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp

Economic and Financial Indicators (updated daily)
http://www.fedstats.gov

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Compensation of Employees: Percent Change 2007 -2008

From: Bureau of Labor and Statistics

Compensation grew in over 80 percent of the 3,112 counties in the U.S., as the average annual compensation per job in the U.S. grew by 2.6 percent to $56,116, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).¹ Total compensation of U.S. workers grew 2.3 percent in 2008, as net job losses partially offset compensation growth. Inflation measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, grew 3.3 percent.

Large counties, those with at least $10 billion in total compensation, represent 5.4 percent of the 3,112 counties in the U.S., but account for almost two-thirds (65.9 percent) of total national compensation. In these 168 counties, all metropolitan:

  • Total compensation grew by 1.9 percent in 2008, ranging from -5.9 percent in Lee County, Florida to 16.8 percent in St. Louis City, Missouri
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.3 percent in 2008, ranging from $42,730 in El Paso County, Texas to $117,509 in New York County (Manhattan), New York
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 14.1 percent, while the real estate and rental and leasing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -2.3 percent
  • The professional, scientific, and technical services sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 10.7 percent

Medium sized counties, those with total compensation of at least $1 billion and less than $10 billion, represent 21.8 percent of all U.S. counties, and account for 25.8 percent of total national compensation. In these 679 counties:

  • Total compensation grew by 2.9 percent in 2008, ranging from -10.2 percent in Howard County, Indiana to 17.6 percent in Lea County, New Mexico
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 3.1 percent in 2008, ranging from $32,827 in Sevier County, Tennessee to $98,417 in North Slope Borough, Alaska
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 15.1 percent, while the real estate and rental and leasing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -1.1 percent
  • The health care and social assistance sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 11.7 percent

Small counties, those with total compensation of less than $1 billion, represent the remaining 72.8 percent of all U.S. counties, but account for only 8.3 percent of total national compensation. In these 2,265 counties:

  • Total compensation grew by 3.1 percent in 2008, ranging from -22.6 percent in Jenkins County, Georgia to 94.2 percent in Trimble County, Kentucky
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 3.7 percent in 2008, ranging from $27,285 in Petroleum County, Montana to $91,585 in Eureka County, Nevada
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 14.9 percent, while durable manufacturing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -2.0 percent
  • The local government sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 16.5 percent
  • Map of US county compensation
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