Is School Worth It?

Time Magazine

Employers and career experts see a growing problem in American society – an abundance of college graduates, many burdened with tuition-loan debt, heading into the work world with a degree that doesn’t mean much anymore.

The problem isn’t just a soft job market – it’s an oversupply of graduates. In 1973, a bachelor’s degree was more of a rarity, since just 47% of high school graduates went on to college. By October 2008, that number had risen to nearly 70%. For many Americans today, a trip through college is considered as much of a birthright as a driver’s license. (See pictures of the college dorm’s evolution.)

Marty Nemko, a career and education expert who has taught at U.C. Berkeley’s Graduate School of Education, contends that the overflow in degree holders is the result of many weaker students attending colleges when other options may have served them better. "There is tremendous pressure to push kids through," he says, adding that as a result, too many students who aren’t skilled become degree holders, promoting a perception among employers that higher education doesn’t work. "That piece of paper no longer means very much, and employers know that," says Nemko. "Everybody’s got it, so it’s watered down."

What’s not watered down is the tab. The cost of average tuition rose 6.5% this fall, and a report released on Dec. 1 by the Project on Student Debt showed that the IOU is getting bigger. Two-thirds of all students now leave college with outstanding loans; the average amount of debt rose to $23,200 in 2008. In the last academic year, the total amount loaned to students increased about 18% from the previous year, to $81 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for recent grads rose as well. It is now 10.6%, a record high.

Full Story Click Here.

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Compensation of Employees: Percent Change 2007 -2008

From: Bureau of Labor and Statistics

Compensation grew in over 80 percent of the 3,112 counties in the U.S., as the average annual compensation per job in the U.S. grew by 2.6 percent to $56,116, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).¹ Total compensation of U.S. workers grew 2.3 percent in 2008, as net job losses partially offset compensation growth. Inflation measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, grew 3.3 percent.

Large counties, those with at least $10 billion in total compensation, represent 5.4 percent of the 3,112 counties in the U.S., but account for almost two-thirds (65.9 percent) of total national compensation. In these 168 counties, all metropolitan:

  • Total compensation grew by 1.9 percent in 2008, ranging from -5.9 percent in Lee County, Florida to 16.8 percent in St. Louis City, Missouri
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.3 percent in 2008, ranging from $42,730 in El Paso County, Texas to $117,509 in New York County (Manhattan), New York
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 14.1 percent, while the real estate and rental and leasing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -2.3 percent
  • The professional, scientific, and technical services sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 10.7 percent

Medium sized counties, those with total compensation of at least $1 billion and less than $10 billion, represent 21.8 percent of all U.S. counties, and account for 25.8 percent of total national compensation. In these 679 counties:

  • Total compensation grew by 2.9 percent in 2008, ranging from -10.2 percent in Howard County, Indiana to 17.6 percent in Lea County, New Mexico
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 3.1 percent in 2008, ranging from $32,827 in Sevier County, Tennessee to $98,417 in North Slope Borough, Alaska
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 15.1 percent, while the real estate and rental and leasing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -1.1 percent
  • The health care and social assistance sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 11.7 percent

Small counties, those with total compensation of less than $1 billion, represent the remaining 72.8 percent of all U.S. counties, but account for only 8.3 percent of total national compensation. In these 2,265 counties:

  • Total compensation grew by 3.1 percent in 2008, ranging from -22.6 percent in Jenkins County, Georgia to 94.2 percent in Trimble County, Kentucky
  • Average annual compensation per job grew by 3.7 percent in 2008, ranging from $27,285 in Petroleum County, Montana to $91,585 in Eureka County, Nevada
  • The mining sector had the largest rate of growth for total compensation in 2008 at 14.9 percent, while durable manufacturing sector had the largest rate of contraction at -2.0 percent
  • The local government sector represented the largest share of 2008 total compensation at 16.5 percent
  • Map of US county compensation
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From The Economist:

Girls on Top

IT HAS been known for a while that stressful conditions such as famine result in more girls being born than happens in good times. The shift in the sex-ratio is tiny—around 1%—but in a large population that is still noticeable. A possible evolutionary explanation is that daughters are likely to mate and produce grandchildren regardless of condition, whereas weedy sons may fail in the struggle to have the chance to reproduce at all. In hard times, then, daughters are a safer evolutionary bet. Regardless of why the shift happens, though, it has long been argued that the moment when it happens is conception—or, more probably, implantation. A womb exposed to stress hormones, runs the hypothesis, is less likely to accommodate a male fetus.

A recently published study, however, suggests this ain’t necessarily so. According to Ralph Catalano of the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues, writing in the American Journal of Human Biology, stress-induced sex selection can take place long after conception and implantation.

Famines being rare in America these days, Dr Catalano and his colleagues used unemployment as their stressful event. They studied the birth records of the state of California from April 1995 to December 2007, and compared these with the number of new claims for unemployment insurance. Based on hints from earlier work, they looked specifically at unemployment claims that had wider social resonance than the firing of a few individuals—namely those in which an employer sacked 50 workers or more in one go. These mass lay-offs, it might be hypothesised, are more like natural catastrophes, such as famines, than isolated accidents that cause a few people to fall on hard times.

The researchers discovered that mass lay-offs did, indeed, lead to fewer boys being born. Over the whole period 52.4% of births were of boys. In some months, though, that fell as low as 51.2%. Teasing out the statistics suggested that the stress of mass lay-offs probably caused these drops, but that the lay-offs in question could happen months after conception. Male fetuses were, in other words, being spontaneously aborted—presumably as a consequence of stress.

Click here to see what this means for the original hypothesis. 

MB: For more information on the links between wealth and breeding click here.  According to this theory and the one mentioned in an earlier post, in times of economic crisis, when incomes are lower, and high unemployment rates are steady, population growth rates should increase, and children that are being born during these times are more likely to be girls than boys. 

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Two Issues With Wage Flexibility

 

MB: Two fellow bloggers of the EconLog share two different views on the optimism of our economy.  Arnold Kling focuses his argument on the job assignment problem; he feels that people are confused on what jobs to get as the economy goes through readjustments which he calls “recalculation”.  A lot of truth can be seen in his statements, as government pumps money into specific industries (such as green industries), prospective employees are finding new and unique jobs that were not as readily available in years past. 

David Anderson agrees that this is an issue but feels “that markets with wage flexibility generally hand that problem just fine.”  Anderson partially blames government policy and intervention of wage flexibility.  More specifically he points to minimum wage and the extension of unemployment benefit duration well beyond the traditional 26 weeks.  Larry Summers wrote an article on unemployment which makes the claim that extending unemployment benefits actually increases unemployment.  This is a radical but valid claim.   Competition amongst prospective employees will allow markets access to readily available cheap labor. 

To read the discussion between the two click here.

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Marginal Propensity to Consume: The proportion of each additional dollar of household income that is used for consumption expenditures. Or alternatively, this is the change in consumption expenditures due to a change in disposable income. Abbreviated MPC, the marginal propensity to consume is the slope of the consumption or propensity-to-consume line that forms the foundation for Keynesian economics. As such, it also takes center stage for the slope of the aggregate expenditure line and the multiplier effect. The sum of the marginal propensity to consume and the related concept, the marginal propensity to save, is equal to one.

Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. For example, a 5 percent unemployment rate and a 3 percent inflation rate gives us a misery index of 8. This index was developed during the 1970s when inflation and unemployment were both moving in the upward direction.

Money Illusion: The erroneous perception that a change in nominal wages or income results in an equal change in real wages or income. Money illusion occurs due to a difference between the actual prices and perceived prices. In particular, people usually have better information about nominal wages or income received than the prices paid for goods and services. For example, a worker might receive a 10 percent increase in nominal wages view this as a 10 percent increase in real wages (and living standard) by failing to recognize that the price level in the economy has also increased by 10 percent. Money illusion is one reason underlying the positive slope of the short-run aggregate supply curve.

Moral Suasion: Government policy in which policy makers or leaders encourage or discourage particular behavior using information requests of consumers, business, and others, without formal actions such as laws or regulations. The use of moral suasion can be somewhat effective during short-term crises situations, such as wars, energy shortages, or financial instability. Moral suasion is occasionally used for monetary policy when the Federal Reserve System doesn’t want to, or have the time to, use other monetary policy tools.

Multiplier:The cumulatively reinforcing interaction between consumption and production that amplifies changes in investment, government spending, or exports. In other words, if businesses decide to increase investment expenditures on capital goods or if government decides to expand the size of the already bloated federal deficit by spending more on national defense, then our economy’s production and income are likely to increase by some multiple of this spending. The amplified increase in production and income, usually from 2 to 5 times, is what gives us the term "multiplier." The process is based on the circular flow idea the people receive income by producing goods and then spend this income on additional production.

All definitions are provided by AmosWeb.

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Top Five Reasons Why the New Jobs Plan Will Not Work

 

MB: A large pool of economic analysts believe that providing aid to the small business sector will create jobs. Earlier this week the President proposed a plan which would use roughly 150 billion dollars to provide tax cuts and government backed loans for small business. However noble this may appear there are several issues, below are the top five reasons why the new proposed plan will not be helpful to our economy.

1. Green jobs are dangerous – Over the last decade Spain has focused a great deal of their resources to generate green jobs; their efforts have been successful but at a great cost. The study of the Effect on Employment of Public Aid to Renewable Energy Sources indicates that over the last eight years every green job created in Spain came at a cost of 2.2 regular jobs, and only one tenth of the newly created green jobs became a permanent job.

President Obama, in fact, housed Spain’s green initiatives as a blueprint for how the United States should use federal funds to stimulate the economy. The author of the study, Dr. Gabriel Calzada, an economics professor at Juan Carlos University in Madrid, said the United States should expect results similar to those in Spain

2. Output jobs – There is little doubt that jobs will be created from more government spending. The issue is the output that the newly created jobs will produce. Hypothetically if legislation is passed which states that there must be a hole dug in every American’s backyard, the laborers digging the whole will be paid for their short termed work, but the holes in the backyards provide no economic value.

3. Short term tax relief – Nothing more really needs to be said about short term tax relief, it is self explanatory. Unemployment and economic crisis is not a quick fix, permanent less extreme tax breaks should be considered.

4. Targeted tax relief – Tax relief should not be targeted to support a few industries. Though some industries have a much larger impact on the economy, tax relief should be given to the entire small business sector, rather than industries focused on creating more green jobs.

5. Intentions are misleading – Double digit unemployment concerns from the American people and legislators, has resulted in yet again more government spending on programs that have not worked as promised. The President assured that TARP funds would keep unemployment below 8 percent, clearly not the case. Time and time again we witness our government making quick irrational decisions in an attempt to gain public approval. Do not be naive to believe that this administration is the only one that has done this. However the current conditions of our economy make these decisions a much greater risk to the American people.

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Weekly Favorites

"China and the American Jobs Machine" – Economist’s View

An Impossible Task – Economist’s View

Report: Record Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates in Q3 – Calculated Risk

Another crash is all too possible – VOX

Unemployment, The Movie – Carpe Diem

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Factor Market: A market used to exchange the services of a factor of production: labor, capital, land , and entrepreneurship. Factor markets, also termed resource markets, exchange the services of factors, NOT the factors themselves. For example, the labor services of workers are exchanged through factor markets NOT the actual workers. Buying and selling the actual workers is not only slavery (which is illegal) it’s also the type of exchange that would take place through product markets, not factor markets. More realistically, capital and land are two resources than can be and are legally exchanged through product markets. The services of these resources, however, are exchanged through factor markets. The value of the services exchanged through factor markets each year is measured as national income.

Featherbedding: A labor union practice of artificially increasing the number of workers employed even though the specific job or task can be completed with fewer workers. This can be done mandating that specific jobs be performed only by workers with specific skill levels or be mandating that a certain number of workers are needed to perform a job or task. By increasing the demand for workers, featherbedding also keeps wages higher.

Fiat Money: A medium of exchange (money) with value in exchange, but little or no value in use. Modern paper currency, coins, and checkable deposits are fiat money. The value of fiat money comes from the public’s general willingness to accept it in exchange for other goods. This willingness comes from the fact that EVERYONE is willing to accept fiat money in exchange, which largely depends on the public’s confidence in the authority (usually government) issuing the fiat money. Fiat money is NOT valuable unto itself, but it is valuable for what it can buy.

First Estate: In past centuries, this included the religious leaders and clergy. In modern times, I like to use it in reference to politicians and government leaders who can exert a great deal of control over resources through the coercive powers of government. One historical function of the first estate is to protect the less powerful consumers, taxpayers, and workers of the third estate from the market control typically held by the business leaders of the second estate. It is not uncommon, however, for an unhealthy degree of cooperation between the first and second estates, which often ends up with the enslavement of the third estate (figuratively and literally). At times help is forthcoming from the watchdog journalist of the fourth estate–unless they too have been overtaken by the ruling elite.

Frictional Unemployment: Unemployment attributable to the time required to match production activities with qualified resources. Frictional unemployment essentially occurs because resources, especially labor, are in the process of moving from one production activity to another. Employers are seeking workers and workers are seeking employment, the two sides just haven’t matched up. Hence unemployment of the frictional variety increases. This mismatch is largely the result of limited information, which is often compounded by geographic separation between producer and resource. Frictional unemployment is one of four unemployment sources. The other three are cyclical unemployment, seasonal unemployment, and structural unemployment.

All definitions were provided by AmosWeb:

http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=awb

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Jobless Rate for Men Much Higher Than Women’s

Wall Street Journal Report

By Jon Hilsenrath

Men are getting hammered by this recession. The jobless rate for men hit 10.1% in August. This now matches the post World War II high hit in 1982. It’s even higher if you include teenagers; 10.9% unemployment for men and teen boys. That compares to a 7.6% jobless rate for women and an 8.2% rate for women and teen girls, which are well below their 1982 peaks. The attached chart shows it all. Men always do more poorly in downturns, in part because they tend to work in more cyclical industries. In this downturn, they’ve been in industries that got hit especially hard: construction, manufacturing and financial services. It would be worth looking at how this is playing out for President Barack Obama. Are his approval ratings getting hit harder among men? Probably.

The economy is experiencing another huge increase in productivity in the third quarter. Nonfarm labor productivity grew at an annual rate of 6.6% in the second quarter. Look for something in that eye-popping range for the current quarter. Here’s a rough sketch of the numbers: Today’s jobs numbers showed that the Labor Department’s index of aggregate hours worked by Americans was at 98.9 in August, down steeply from a second quarter average of 99.7. That’s from a combination of job cuts, reductions in overtime and other cuts to work shifts. Let’s assume there’s no change in hours worked in September. That would mean the total amount of hours that Americans worked in the third quarter would be down at about a 2.8% annual rate. The economy seems to be on track to grow at an annual rate of 3% or more. More output and fewer hours worked means more productivity in the neighborhood of 6%. You’ll be hearing a lot of talk about a jobless recovery in the months ahead. The upside is that this is good for corporate profits. The downside is that workers will suffer even after the economy comes back.

gender

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/09/04/jobless-rate-for-men-far-worse-than-womens/?mod=rss_WSJBlog?mod=marketbeat

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